Are Some Jumps Faulted More Frequently? Analyzing Fault Distribution for Showjumping

 Are some jumps faulted more than others?  Is it because they're "harder" or just used more frequently?  We looked at the data to find out.

The Approach:

We designed a model course to arrive at an approximate distribution of jump types.  The Course was based on an average of 10 different jump configurations to capture different Combination Types, and use of elements like Liverpools, Skinny Jumps, Planks, Walls and Water.  

We calculated the percent each element comprised within the model course and compared that to Baseline Data for JumpClear members for their Fault Distribution for Average Round 1 Faults over a 12 month period.  

Findings

Overall, the Model Course aligns very well with Average Faults.  This data suggests that faults - viewed as an average across multiple horses and rounds - occur roughly in proportion to the frequency of the type of course element.  Otherwise said, no particular jump is a bogey causing a hugely disproportionate amount of faults.

We know, however, that faults vary significantly between individual horses.  We'll look more closely at this in the next post.

Showjumping Course Analysis Combination Elements

As the JumpClear database grows, it's exciting to deliver more insights based on total member data.  Here we take a deeper look at Combination Faults...

Starting with the basics, Combinations - across all elements - made up 34% of Round 1 Faults for JumpClear members over the past 12 months.  They were a much smaller percent of faults in the jumpoff - just 15%.  

There numbers are interesting because they suggest that combination faults come down to simple math.  Combinations are faulted roughly in proportion to the percent they make up of total jumps on the course*; they are not - in fact - horrible bogey obstacles that stand in the way of every horse & rider's clear round.

(If you want to check that math: the average first round has between 12 - 14 numbered jumps with somewhere around two doubles and a triple or two doubles, so 19 to 21 obstacles of which combinations comprise 6 or 7.  The average jumpoff has about 7 - 9 numbered jumps with one double, so about 9 to 11 obstacles of which combination elements make up two).  

However, we see that combination faults differ quite significantly by division.

As a general rule, the lower heights have fewer combination faults.  This is largely - but not entirely - driven by the impact of the "mid" element and likely reflective of the limited use of triple combination in the 1.30 and 1.20 national classes.

By a slight margin, the most rails come from the Combination In Element.  Across all elements, faults are split nearly evenly between oxers and verticals.

WEF 2022 Grand Prix Analysis

 

Each week of WEF, JumpClear analyzed the Grand Prix to provide stats on the most faulted course element.  We also tracked overall faults across the 13 weeks.  Here's what we learned!

There were 551 First Rounds throughout the Season (data includes the highest level grand prix each week).  119 (22%) were clear.  The highest clear round average came in Week 6, a 3* where Catalina Cruz was the course designer.

There were 772 unique Round 1 Faults.  

• The most frequently faulted course elements were an Other Oxer (13%) and Other Vertical (10%)
• The least faulted were a wall, a triple bar, the first jump (all jump types) and a Last Jump Vertical.  All were 1% or less of total faults.  (Interestingly, last jump oxer was much more heavily faulted (7%)
• Combinations made up 37% of faults in total: the most faulted combination element was a Combination-in Vertical
• The most faulted Combination Type by a significant margin was an Oxer-Vertical (27%).  Vertical-Oxer (18%) and Vertical-Oxer-Vertical (15%) followed.  

Industry Insights Based on JumpClear Member Statistics (March 2022)

 

JumpClear members averaged a 53% clear round average in March.  This is in line with the 12 month average.  

This is the first month where no horse achieved a perfect 100% clear round average.  The highest average was 80%

Average Rounds/Month was 6.9 which is the highest we've seen.  

Looking at Fault Source metrics, the most faulted course elements continue to come from the "other" Jump Detail with Other Oxer driving 28% of Faults and Other Vertical 22%.  The next most faulted were three Combination elements: Combination-In Oxer, Combination Out-Vertical (both 11%) and Combination-In Vertical (10%). 

Lovsta Future Challenge Final

 

Lovsta Future Challenge - Jumping

The Lovsta Future Challenge is a tour for 7 year old showjumpers in Wellington.  The vision is to give young jumpers the best conditions to develop towards top international sports.   

49 horses qualified for the final by jumping at least 2 clear rounds in the 7 qualifiers held over the course of the winter.  On average, we saw a 55% clear round average during the qualifers.  

The top qualifers are shown below.  Note the eventual winner, Cinderella and Beat Mandli, was tied for the top performance going into the final!    

 

Looking by breed, Dutch Warmbloods (KWPN) made up over 1/4 the qualifiers.  Belgian Sporthorses and Selle Francais were the next most represented.  The most popular stallions were Balou du Rouet and Emerald.

JumpClear conducted fault source analysis throughout the qualifiers.  In general, we see a very similar pattern in young horses to the baseline with Other Vertical and Oxer emerging as the most faulted, followed by the combination elements.  

Member Statistics February 2022

 

JumpClear members averaged a 51% clear round average in February.  This is a significant decline from January but more in line with the 12 month average (54%).  

Their Round 1 Clear Round Average was nearly 20 points below the Jumpoff Average (45% vs. 65%); this is a slightly larger gap than usual.

Two horses achieved a perfect 100% Clear Round Average.

Members averaged 4.6 Rounds/Month and 2.7 Faults (# of Faulted Jumps).  Both are higher than January but more in line with the volume we saw late last Fall, suggesting Members may have been just gearing up for the season in January.  

Looking at Fault Source metrics, the most faulted course elements continue to come from the "other" Jump Detail with Other Oxer driving 23% of Faults and Other Vertical 15%.  The next most faulted was a Combination-In Vertical (10%).  

If we drill into more detail, Other Singles Oxer resulted in 13% of Faults; Other Related Oxers resulted in 10%.  

Lovsta Future Championships - Qualifier 6

Lovsta Future Challenge - Jumping

JumpClear is excited to partner with the Lovsta Future Challenge to provide analytics supporting its US Jumping and Dressage Future Challenge!

The Lovsta Future Challenge is a tour for 7 year old showjumpers in Wellington.  The vision is to give young jumpers the best conditions to develop towards top international sports. 

Each week, JumpClear will provide topline statistics on Qualifying horses.  As the tour progresses, we will dive deeper into overall series metrics including Fault Source metrics.  Analysis will also cover the breeding and development of top qualifiers.  Stay tuned!